The January drop in average cash withdrawal values is in keeping with consumer cash withdrawal patterns recorded over the past four years. "Since 2008, our recorded January withdrawal averages following the December festive period have consistently revealed negative growth. January is also traditionally the month when consumers adopt a more conservative spending approach and cut back post the festive season excess," says Marc Sternberg, MD of Spark ATM Systems.
He adds that additional factors such as salaries being drawn earlier in December also influences lower ATM withdrawal figures in January.
He points to the latest data released by the University of South Africa's Bureau of Market Research (BMR) that forecasts that local retail sales will record a moderate annual growth of 4.5% in 2012, if retail inflation remains stable. Economists at the Bureau for Economic Research agreed that BMR's forecast was achievable, but would depend on the currency (rand) movement and European financial volatility.
"We expect average monthly cash withdrawal figures in 2012 to return to positive gains in April due to increased retail activity during the Easter holiday period," concludes Sternberg.
Stats SA's Retail Trade Sales (RTS) values follow the same pattern as South Africa cash withdrawal values. Released two months ahead of the RTS, the SCI figures therefore predict the pattern that RTS will follow.
The SCI is a useful 'real-time' gauge of consumer spending, utilising the company's ATM systems' network of over 1400 ATMs located countrywide to reflect accurate, broad and timely cash demand and utilisation data. These ATMs are typically located in convenience stores, petroleum stations, specialist retail nodes and leisure & hospitality venues.
