WCape hits rainfall records amid changing climate patterns

Source: wirestock via Freepik

July’s extreme weather followed a notably dry start to the winter season. June 2024 had seen below-normal rainfall, aligning with forecasts for a drier winter. However, a series of cold fronts in July drastically changed the weather landscape, bringing severe conditions and significant precipitation. The Newlands station at Kirstenbosch National Botanical Gardens recorded over 500 mm of rain, setting a new record for July since 1999.

Other stations, including Franschhoek, Kenilworth, and Villiersdorp, reported substantial rainfall, with some locations breaking long-standing records. Cape Wineland's stations also experienced considerable precipitation, further highlighting the intensity of the weather.

Extreme weather events

The heavy rainfall was accompanied by strong winds and minor hail, particularly affecting Stellenbosch’s Helshoogte Pass on July 7, 2024. Snow covered the mountainous regions of the Western Cape, resulting in cold temperatures. SAWS data highlights the significant increase in rainfall from July 2023 to July 2024, demonstrating the dramatic change in weather patterns over the past year.

To understand the implications of these weather events, SABC News spoke with Professor Guy Midgley, acting director of the School for Climate Studies at Stellenbosch University. Professor Midgley highlighted that the recent rainfall is “record-breaking” and represents the highest July rainfall in six decades. He emphasized the sensitivity of the Western Cape’s climate to shifts in weather patterns, noting, “The Western Cape is part of a rare winter rainfall climate zone, one of only a few such areas globally.”

He further explained that while improved weather models can predict extreme events with high precision, predicting climate changes remains challenging. “There’s no climate event that is unaffected by climate change anymore,” Professor Midgley said. “The question is no longer if it’s due to climate change, but how much.”

The professor stressed the importance of adaptation efforts in response to extreme weather events. “Climate adaptation is crucial. We are learning to adapt to extreme events, and our ability to manage these challenges will determine our success in the coming decades.”

The record-breaking rainfall in Cape Town in July 2024 underscores the region’s vulnerability to extreme weather and highlights the importance of effective climate adaptation strategies. The combination of substantial rainfall and severe weather conditions exemplifies the significant shifts occurring in the Western Cape’s climate.

For detailed rainfall data and further information, refer to the full SAWS document here.