Limited hiring prospects for Q3 2017 following 3% decline

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Opportunities for job seekers are expected to be strongest in electricity, gas & water supply and the finance, insurance, real estate & business services sectors; and weakest within the agriculture, hunting, forestry & fishing and the mining & quarrying sectors. Provincially, employers in KwaZulu-Natal report the strongest hiring intentions for the third quarter of the year, while employers within the Eastern Cape and Free State report the weakest hiring intentions.

Of the 750 employers who participated in the survey, 9% anticipate an increase in staffing levels, 7% expect a decrease and 83% forecast no change.

Lyndy van den Barselaar, MD of the ManpowerGroup SA, provides insights into why South African employers are reporting limited hiring intentions for July to September. “As both global and local economic uncertainty continues, many businesses remain cautious about increasing staffing levels. South Africa faced two economic downgrades in recent months, which further demonstrates market uncertainty and has resulted in businesses being more cautious in their spending and hiring activity. This is reflected in the fact that the majority of local employers said they anticipated no change in staffing levels for the upcoming quarter.”

Regional comparisons

Employers in all five regions anticipate an increase in staffing levels during 3Q 2017. KwaZulu-Natal employers report the strongest hiring prospects with a net employment outlook of +7%. Elsewhere, outlooks of +6% and +5% are reported in the Western Cape and Gauteng, respectively. Meanwhile, employers in both the Eastern Cape and the Free State report cautious hiring intentions with outlooks of +1%.

“KwaZulu-Natal remains a promising region for business development, with many local and international businesses looking to the region for expansion, especially those making use of its ports. A good example is Nestlé’s launch of its newly-renovated coffee production facility in Estcourt, which has reportedly created 490 indirect and permanent jobs.”

When compared with the previous quarter, hiring plans weaken in four of the five regions. The outlook for the Western Cape declines by 7%, while employers in the Free State report a decrease of 6%. Outlooks are 5% and 2% weaker in the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal, respectively, but employers in Gauteng report relatively stable hiring prospects.

Year-on-year, outlooks also decline in four of the five regions. The most notable decrease of 7% is reported in the Eastern Cape, while outlooks are 5% 4% weaker in the Western Cape and the Free State, respectively. Meanwhile, employers in KwaZulu-Natal report no change.

Sector comparisons

Employers in eight of the 10 industry sectors expect to increase staffing levels during the coming quarter. The strongest labour markets are anticipated in the electricity, gas & water supply sector and the finance, insurance, real estate & business services sector, with employers in both sectors reporting net employment outlooks of +10%. A moderate hiring pace is forecast for the wholesale & retail trade sector, with an outlook of +7%, while the outlook for the construction sector is +5%. However, employers in two sectors report uncertain hiring intentions, with outlooks of -1% reported in the agriculture, hunting, forestry & fishing sector and the mining & quarrying sector.

“As water shortages continue to plague parts of the country, individuals and businesses are investing in systems and technologies that enable them to save water, and lessen their environmental impact. This means that those individuals and organisations who are creating, installing, and maintaining these kinds of systems and technologies are more than likely experiencing an increase in demand, and are therefore looking to hire,” explains van den Barselaar.

When compared with the previous quarter, hiring plans weaken in six of the 10 industry sectors. Considerable declines of 11 and 10% are reported in the transport, storage & communication sector and the agriculture, hunting, forestry & fishing sector, respectively. Elsewhere, outlooks are 4% weaker in both the restaurants & hotels sector and the wholesale & retail trade sector. Meanwhile, hiring prospects improve in three sectors, most notably by 5% in the manufacturing sector.

Employers in seven of the 10 industry sectors report weaker hiring intentions when compared with this time one year ago. The most noteworthy decline of 13% is reported in the public & social sector, while outlooks are 6% weaker in three sectors – the agriculture, hunting, forestry & fishing sector, the transport, storage & communication sector and the wholesale & retail trade sector. However, outlooks strengthen in two sectors; with construction sector employers reporting an increase of 10% and an improvement of 7% reported by mining & quarrying sector employers.

Organisation-size comparisons

Participating employers are categorised into one of four organisation sizes: micro businesses have less than 10 employees; small businesses have 10-49 employees; medium businesses have 50-249 employees; and large businesses have 250 or more employees.

Staffing levels are expected to increase in three of the four organisation size categories during 3Q 2017. Large employers report upbeat hiring prospects with a net employment outlook of +20%, while outlooks stand at +6% and +2% for micro- and medium-size employers, respectively. Meanwhile, small employers anticipate a flat labour market, reporting an outlook of 0%.

Quarter-on-quarter, outlooks decline by 6% and 3% for medium- and small-size employers, respectively. However, large employers report an improvement of 2%, while the outlook for micro employers is unchanged.

When compared with this time one year ago, small- and medium-size employers both report declines of 7%, but the outlook for large employers is 4% stronger. Meanwhile, micro employers report relatively stable hiring plans.

Global outlook

Globally, the strongest hiring plans are reported by employers in Japan, Taiwan, Hungary, the US, Hong Kong and Turkey. Meanwhile, employers report the weakest hiring prospects in Italy, the Czech Republic and Finland.

The next ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey will be released on 12 September 2017 to report hiring expectations for the last quarter of 2017.