Maize surplus forecast cut sharply

With maize yields also expected to be lower this year in the US and China‚ global demand could put pressure on food prices. Already‚ Chinese buyers have been in SA to explore the possibility of importing crops‚ including maize.

While farmers in SA had put more hectares under maize‚ hoping to cash in on high international prices‚ the yields per hectare were expected to be lower than last year‚ according to Grain SA.

The size of the expected commercial maize crop was 11‚056-million tons ‚ the crop estimates committee (CEC) said on Tuesday in its revised area and fifth production forecasts for the 2011-12 summer crops. The committee deferred any changes to next month‚ when most of the crop is expected to have been harvested.

Jannie de Villiers‚ CE of Grain SA‚ said yesterday: "The lower yields are purely weather-related. Last year we had a super year as rains were great. But this year is a bit dry."

"Of the forecast 11-million tons of maize for 2012‚ we have at least 1-million tons for export‚ of which Botswana‚ Lesotho‚ Namibia and Swaziland will import about 400 000 tons‚" he said‚ leaving about 600 000 tons for other exports.

However‚ several countries were also expecting lower yields‚ including the US‚ which was also experiencing a dry spell. "The US is the biggest driver of maize prices due to the fact that 44% of its maize crop goes to biofuel production‚ and we know that Chinese and Mexicans crop buyers are looking for maize‚" De Villiers said.

"This will put some pressure on SA and we might end up exporting more as the demand for maize exports increases."

Asked if SA's grain reserves could negate likely price increases‚ National Agriculture Marketing Council CEO Ronald Ramabulane said the country would have answers in two weeks when the South African Grain Information Service (Sagis) releases new data on maize and grain stocks.

After the data were released‚ stakeholders would meet to discuss import volumes and export commitments to allow the country to know the situation.

De Villiers said while it was fairly early in the season to be certain‚ the expectation was that commodity prices would remain high or even increase‚ driven by foreign demand.

The CEC's latest crop estimate report has also‚ for the first time‚ recorded an increase in crop yields in the non-commercial agricultural sector‚ showing that smallholder farmers were recording more productivity.

It estimated that the sector recorded 638 463 tons‚ 13‚14% higher than the 564 335 tons produced last season‚ with yields of 1‚28 tons per hectare.

De Villiers attributed the increase in the productivity of small-scale farmers to training by Grain SA‚ costing R16m a year. The organisation has an estimated 4000 black farmers in its programmes and more are graduating into commercial farming every year.

The CEC said smallholders planted 442 114ha‚ representing a decrease of 9‚17% compared to the 486 760ha in the previous season‚ though the yields have increased.

Last year‚ the area planted to maize in the non-commercial agricultural sector decreased by 6‚6% compared to the 520 940ha in 2010.