A new report* by independent market analyst Datamonitor forecasts that targeted therapy cancer brands will continue to perform strongly over the coming years, achieving sales of over $42 billion** by 2017. Genentech/Roche will continue to dominate the market, with its top three targeted therapies - Rituxan, Herceptin and Avastin - alone representing more than half of the total targeted therapies market value. In addition to Genentech/Roche's big three, two other targeted therapy brands that currently have annual sales of over $1billion. Eight more marketed brands are set to achieve ‘blockbuster' status over the 10-year forecast period, driven by the persistent unmet need that still exists across a number of tumour types.
In 1997, Biogen Idec/Genentech/Roche/Zenyaku Kogyo's Rituxan (rituximab) - a monoclonal antibody used to treat non-Hodgkin's lymphoma - became the first targeted cancer drug to reach the market. Since Rituxan's launch, researchers have elucidated more of the mechanisms driving cancer and have identified a variety of potential drug targets, resulting in a proliferation of the number of marketed targeted therapies. Currently, 24 different targeted cancer therapies are commercially available in at least one of the seven major markets**.
Targeted therapies (used either alone or in combination with cytotoxic therapies) have led to improvements in treatment outcomes across many tumour types, allowing some of them to become the standard-of-care in their approved indications. The resulting high level of uptake, coupled with their premium prices, make targeted therapies the leading therapy class in the oncology market in terms of sales. According to Datamonitor's report, global sales of targeted therapies totalled $17.3 billion in 2007, growing a staggering 33% in just a year, says Datamonitor oncology analyst Dr. Tom Gray. “A number of targeted therapy cancer brands have achieved blockbuster sales, and have become important sources of revenue for some of the leading pharmaceutical and biotech companies.”
Not surprisingly, an increasing number of companies have turned their attention to the cancer targeted therapy market, undoubtedly trying to emulate the blockbuster status that several brands have already achieved. Since 2005, 10 new branded targeted drugs have entered the market. With more pipeline drugs looking likely to gain approval in the near future, the market is set to become even more competitive and fragmented.
Some drug targets play a role in several different types of cancer, which means that targeted therapies have considerable potential for expansion across different indications. For example, Genentech/Roche/Chugai's Avastin (bevacizumab), a monoclonal antibody that prevents the growth of new blood vessels to a tumour, is already approved for four different solid tumours -colorectal cancer, lung cancer, kidney cancer and breast cancer. Given the persistent level of unmet need across a number of tumour types, Datamonitor anticipates further indication expansions for a number of marketed targeted therapies in the next five years.
Several other factors will drive continuing market penetration by the targeted therapy cancer brands, including growing physician awareness of recently launched brands, use in earlier lines of therapy and different treatment settings such as the adjuvant and maintenance settings.
Datamonitor forecasts some of the key targeted therapies to achieve high sales growth between 2008 and 2017, driven by these factors. Combined sales of the targeted therapy brands will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11%, reaching over $42 billion in the seven major markets by 2017. As a result, eight new targeted therapy cancer brands will achieve blockbuster status by 2017, including Pfizer's Sutent (sunitinib), OSI/Genentech/Roche/Chugai's Tarceva (erlotinib) and Bayer Schering/Onyx's Nexavar (sorafenib).
Although the targeted therapies cancer brands market will be one of the biggest areas of growth in the pharmaceutical and biotech industry over the coming years, it will face a number of significant threats. The rising incidence of cancer and growing use of targeted therapies, coupled with their high cost, will put healthcare budgets under increasing strain. In more cost-conservative markets, this has already led to restricted use of certain brands. In the UK for example, the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) has recommended against use of a number of targeted cancer drugs for National Health Service (NHS) patients on the grounds of low cost-effectiveness, Dr. Gray says. “If other healthcare systems follow the UK's example, which looks an increasing possibility, this could significantly dampen growth of the market and will ultimately impact the effectiveness of treatment available to patients.”
Additionally, a number of brands will have to contend with the threat of patent expiry by 2017, including Novartis' Gleevec (imatinib) and Takeda/ Johnson & Johnson's Velcade (bortezomib). Similarly, Dr. Gray says, “If legislation allowing biosimilar (biologic follow-on products) monoclonal antibodies goes ahead, sales of certain other brands could also suffer.”
In the rapidly evolving competitive landscape of the targeted therapy cancer brands market, the current market leaders - Genentech and Roche - look well-placed to consolidate their position. The companies' oncology portfolio includes the three leading brands in 2007 -Rituxan, Herceptin (trastuzumab) and Avastin, Dr. Gray says. “Datamonitor believes these brands will remain the three leading targeted therapy cancer brands in 2017, achieving combined sales of over $23 billion in the seven major markets.
“While Genentech and Roche are set to dominate the market between 2008 and 2017, the high growth achieved by a number of different brands will make targeted cancer therapies an increasingly important revenue source for several other companies as well,” he says.
* Commercial Insight: Targeted Therapy Cancer Brands
** Seven major markets: US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK
Datamonitor's report Commercial Insight: Targeted Therapy Cancer Brands provides an overview and analysis of the targeted therapy cancer brands in each of the seven major markets based on 2007 sales. It also includes forecasts to 2017 in light of key events set to influence product sales.
