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SACSC releases economic overview

21 Jan 2011

The SA Council of Shopping Centres (SACSC) has released its Economic Overview - January 2011 written by economist Christo Luus (Eco Quant). It reports that retail sales have recovered strongly in the second and third quarters of 2010 and is expected to have reached around 7% y/y in the fourth quarter of last year. Some pullback may occur in early 2011, but unless the recovery stalls significantly, retail sales growth should remain in positive territory (between 6-8% y/y) during 2012.

The quarter-on-quarter economic growth rate figure for South Africa slowed further in the third quarter to amount to 2.6% at a seasonally adjusted annualised rate (saar), compared with the 4.6% and 2.8% recorded in the first and second quarters of 2010 respectively. Of the major sectors, mining grew the strongest, at 28.1% (saar), whereas agriculture (at 16.3%) also performed well. The wholesale and retail sectors rose by 3.3%.

Report contents

Household consumption-especially on durables-surged ahead in 2010
Real retail sales growth has been positive throughout 2010
Inflation continues to surprise on the downside, owing mostly to the strong rand
Consumer vulnerability remained stable at its improved level
Employment showed first tentative signs of expanding

Download the Economic Overview - January 2011 (1.2Mb PDF)